The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: ''On Robustness downloads Views 3MB Size Report. DOWNLOAD EPUB . The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility. The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t. Free kindle book and epub digitized and proofread by Project The Black Swan at Home and Abroad by Anonymous Download; Bibrec.
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The Black Swan ebook epub/pdf/prc/mobi/azw3 download for Kindle, Mobile, Tablet, Laptop, PC, e-Reader. Business & Money #kindlebook #ebook #freebook . Download full-text PDF. Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The black swan: The impact. of the highly improbable. New York: Random house, , pages. black swan; so was 9/ For Nassim Nicholas. Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own .
The Black Swan: Nassim Nicholas Taleb. How to Download Follow Twitter. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.
Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.
The Black Swan
We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy. The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.
Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty.
The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong. Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable.
He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until , when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong.
The Black Swan - Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Pobierz epub z sidi-its.info
But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. How to download eBooks: Next post: To Kill a Mockingbird. Previous post: The Crossing Harry Bosch. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact unlike the bird.
The Black Swan at Home and Abroad by Anonymous
Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
I stop and summarize the triplet: Ever since we left the Pleistocene, some ten millennia ago, the effect of these Black Swans has been increasing. It started accelerating during the industrial revolution, as the world started getting more complicated, while ordinary events, the ones we study and discuss and try to predict from reading the newspapers, have become increasingly inconsequential.
Just imagine how little your understanding of the world on the eve of the events of would have helped you guess what was to happen next.
Don't cheat by using the explanations drilled into your cranium by your dull high school teacher. How about the rise of Hitler and the subsequent war? How about the precipitous demise of the Soviet bloc?
How about the consequences of the rise of Islamic fundamentalism? How about the effect of the spread of the Internet? How about the market crash of and the more unexpected recovery? Fads, epidemics, fashion, ideas, the emergence of art genres and schools. All follow these Black Swan dynamics. Literally, just about everything of significance around you might qualify. This combination of low predictability and large impact makes the Black Swan a great puzzle; but that is not yet the core concern of this book.
Add to this phenomenon the fact that we tend to act as if it does not exist! I don't mean just you, your cousin Joey, and me, but almost all "social scientists" who, for over a century, have operated under the false belief that their tools could measure uncertainty.
For the applications of the sciences of uncertainty to real-world problems has had ridiculous effects; I have been privileged to see it in finance and economics.
Go ask your portfolio manager for his definition of "risk," and odds are that he will supply you with a measure that excludes the possibility of the Black Swan-hence one that has no better predictive value for assessing the total risks than astrology we will see how they dress up the intellectual fraud with mathematics.
This problem is endemic in social matters. The central idea of this book concerns our blindness with respect to randomness, particularly the large deviations: Why do we, scientists or nonscientists, hotshots or regular Joes, tend to see the pennies instead of the dollars? Why do we keep focusing on the minutiae, not the possible significant large events, in spite of the obvious evidence of their huge influence?
And, if you follow my argument, why does reading the newspaper actually decrease your knowledge of the world? It is easy to see that life is the cumulative effect of a handful of significant shocks.
It is not so hard to identify the role of Black Swans, from your armchair or bar stool. Go through the following exercise.
Look into your own existence. Count the significant events, the technological changes, and the inventions that have taken place in our environment since you were born and compare them to what was expected before their advent. How many of them came on a schedule?
Look into your own personal life, to your choice of profession, say, or meeting your mate, your exile from your country of origin, the betrayals you faced, your sudden enrichment or impoverishment.
How often did these things occur according to plan? Think of the terrorist attack of September 11, If such a possibility were deemed worthy of attention, fighter planes would have circled the sky above the twin towers, airplanes would have had locked bulletproof doors, and the attack would not have taken place, period.
Something else might have taken place. I don't know. Isn't it strange to see an event happening precisely because it was not supposed to happen? What kind of defense do we have against that?
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